Home Builder Future Sales Confidence Rises To New Highs

Home Builder Confidence Surges In May 2013Home builders are gaining confidence in current and future market conditions for new homes, but continue to see below-average foot traffic in new homes.

The reading for May’s National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) /Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased by three points to a reading of 44 as compared to April’s revised reading of 41. The HMI measures builder confidence in current sales conditions for newly built homes, buyer foot traffic in new homes and builder expectations for future sales conditions.

Builder Confidence In Future New Home Sales Highest Since February 2007

The HMI reading for current sales conditions for newly built homes rose from 44 to 48. The reading for buyer foot traffic in new homes rose from 30 to 33, and builder confidence in future sales of new homes rose from 52 to 53, which is the highest reading posted for builder expectations since February 2007.

A reading of more than 50 indicates that more builders consider housing markets good than bad.

NAHB Chairman Rick Judson noted that home builders are facing challenges including rising costs for building materials, lots and labor as supply chains recover from the recession. He also said that builders took note of “urgency” among home buyers wanting to take advantage of low mortgage rates, but who are facing a dwindling supply of available homes.

Regional Housing Market Index Unchanged Except In West

HMI readings for three of the four geographical regions used in the HMI survey of builders remained unchanged with the Northeast at 37, Midwest at 45 and South at 42.

The reading for the West declined by five points to 49, and likely reflects the shortage of building space and available new homes for sale. The regional HMI figures are calculated as a three-month rolling average.

In some areas of the West, home sellers are again receiving multiple offers for homes, a clear indication of diminishing inventories of homes for sale.

As an example, the Sacramento Bee recently reported the dilemma of builders faced with fewer available construction-ready lots alongside an increasing demand for homes. As inventories of both new and pre-owned homes shrink, demand for homes is growing as buyers take advantage of low mortgage rates.

With builders feeling confident about the future and poised to ramp up their home building efforts, it is a great time to consider buying or selling a home in South Orange County.

Shoot me an email, a text, or give me a call to discuss your options right away to take advantage of this exciting opportunity.

 

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May 2013 RealtyTrac Foreclosure Report Shows Strength For The US Housing Market

May 2013 RealtyTrac Foreclosure Report Shows Strength For The US Housing MarketRealtyTrac recently reported that national foreclosure filings are down while foreclosure filings are seeing marked increases in some states.

There are two systems for foreclosing residential real estate in the United States; judicial and non-judicial foreclosure. The states individually decide which foreclosure process will be followed in their state.

Click Here To Download An Overview Of The Foreclosure Process

Judicial foreclosure requires action by the courts because the mortgage is not written including a “power of sale clause”. Judicial foreclosure proceedings generally take longer than non-judicial processes due to this court involvement.

A log-jam of delayed judicial foreclosures are beginning to move through backlogged courts with the result of higher numbers of foreclosures started, foreclosure auctions scheduled, and properties either sold to third parties at foreclosure auctions or repossessed by mortgage lenders.

In states allowing non-judicial foreclosure, the matter may be handled outside of the judicial system as the mortgage is written with the power of sale clause which allows the lender to take control of the mortgaged property to satisfy the outstanding lien.

Here are highlights of April’s foreclosure report:

Nationally, 144,790 foreclosure filings were made in April, a decrease of 5 percent compared to March and representing an annual decrease of 23 percent year-over-year.

Overall, April’s residential foreclosure activity was at its lowest since February 2007. About one of every 905 U.S. housing units had a foreclosure filing during April.

Due to the aforementioned backlog of judicial foreclosures, scheduled foreclosure auctions hit a 30-month high in April rising by 22 percent between March and April.

Some states had markedly higher rates of foreclosure sales scheduled in April 2013 as compared to April 2012. Examples include Maryland (+199 percent), New Jersey (+91 percent), Ohio (+73 percent), Oklahoma (+57 percent), and Florida (+55 percent)

Foreclosure auctions scheduled in non-judicial states were 7 percent lower in April as compared to March, and were an encouraging 43 percent lower in April 2013 as compared to April 2012; this was the lowest reading for non-judicial foreclosure sales scheduled since December of 2005.

Non-judicial foreclosure sales were impacted in some states as the result of legislation affecting foreclosure procedures. Affected states included Arkansas, California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington.

70,133 U.S. homes went into foreclosure in April 2013, which is 40 percent lower than for March 2013 and 28 percent lower than during April 2012.

With home values increasing and large numbers of delayed foreclosures clearing the books, this data offers further evidence that the U.S. real estate market is steadily improving.  As more foreclosures are removed from the housing inventory, home prices should continue to stabilize and increase in the South Orange County area.

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Upswing In April 2013 Jobs Report Signals Good News For Real Estate

April 2013 Jobs Report Shows Strength For Housing SectorThe Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Non-farm Payrolls and National Unemployment Rate for April last Friday. These two reports are collectively called the Jobs Report.

165,000 jobs were added in April, while the unemployment rate dropped from 7.60 percent in March to 7.50 percent in April. 673,000 jobs have been added since January. Jobs were added in employment sectors including business and professional, health care and eating and drinking establishments.

The main impact of the jobs report on home sales and mortgage lending is the ability of would-be home buyers to qualify for mortgage loans.

Long term unemployment and under-employment has worked against consumers wanting to buy homes when interest rates and home prices hit significant lows.

 Falling Long Term Unemployment Numbers Help New Home Buyers Buy Homes

Long-term unemployment (workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more) fell by 258,000 workers to 4.4 million in April. The share of long term workers among all unemployed fell by 2.2 percent to 37.4 percent of unemployed workers.

Since January, the number of long-term unemployed has decreased by 687,000 workers and 3.1 percent. Gaining employment is a plus for the economy and for households facing financial stress due to unemployment.

Another significant data set in terms of U.S. jobs measures workers who are working part-time, but who want to work full time. This sector increased by 278,000 in April to 7.9 million.

February and March 2013 Non-farm Payrolls numbers were revised upward. In February, jobs added were changed from 268,000 to 332,000. In March, jobs added were revised from 88,000 to 138,000. This adjusts the number of jobs added for February to March by an additional 114,000 new jobs.

Federal Reserve Bond Purchase Point To Continued Low Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve is continuing its program of quantitative easing (QE) by buying $85 billion in bonds and mortgage backed securities (MBS) monthly.

Reducing or eliminating QE would lessen the demand for bonds and MBS; when bond and MBS prices fall, mortgage rates usually rise. Lower mortgage rates can help offset rising home prices and allow more consumers to buy homes.

While home prices are gradually increasing, mortgage rates are still low. This helps moderate-income home buyers with affordability, but these conditions won’t last indefinitely.

In some regions, such as the West, available homes and land are in short supply, which is driving up home prices. This trend is helping home owners, and potentially home sellers, gain higher sales prices for their real estate. Overall, increasing the number of jobs is positive for the economy.

Contact your trusted mortgage lender for a personalized mortgage interest rate quote and to learn more about affordable home loan options.  Don’t have a trusted mortgage person?  I have a few that I can wholeheartedly recommend.  Just shoot me an email, or give me a call.

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Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Post Highest Growth Rates Since 2006

Case-Shiller Posts Highest Gains Since 2006Housing markets continue to improve according to the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices released April 30 for February’s data.

The Indices consist of a 10-City Composite Index and a 20-City Composite Index with housing markets for each city reported based on a three-month rolling average of home prices.

Case Shiller Posts Highest Growth Rates Since 2006

The data released yesterday comprised the Indices’ highest growth rates since May 2006.

For the 12 months between February 2012 and February 2013, the 10-City Composite Index reports that average home prices posted a gain of 8.6 percent and average home prices for the 20-City Composite Index grew by 9.3 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

All 20 cities posted a year-over-year gain for at least two consecutive months.

The 10-City Composite Index grew by 0.4 percent between January and February, while the 20-City Composite Index grew by 0.3 percent for the same time period.

16 of the 20 cities reported rising annual growth rates for home sales between January and February 2013, while four cities including Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis and Phoenix saw decreases between -0.1 and -0.4 percent in annual home prices between January and February 2013 readings.

Longer-term readings provide a more positive light, as with the example for Phoenix, Arizona.

The month-to-month reading of annual home prices indicated a decrease, but the reading for Phoenix year over year indicates a + 23.0 percent increase in average home prices.

Ten Metro Areas Gain Double Digits Over Past Year

10 cities posted double-digit year-over-year growth rates; they include Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco and Tampa.

San Diego and Tampa have joined the double-digit cities in February with average home prices increasing for each city of just over 10 percent.

Phoenix, San Francisco, Las Vegas and Atlanta posted the highest year-over-year gains in average home prices.

Three older cities, New York, Boston and Chicago posted the lowest year-over-year rates in average home price readings.

Atlanta and Dallas achieved the highest annual growth rates since the inception of the 10-City Composite (1991) and the 20-City Composite (2001).

Improving Housing Markets Seen As Beacon Of Economic Recovery

Improving housing markets are considered a leading indicator of overall economic recovery as home ownership typically increases wealth and leads to more spending.

Economists note that while current news for housing markets is good, average home prices remain at 2003 levels, which can be very good news for home buyers.

Shortages of available homes in many areas – like South Orange County – is impacting availability and ultimately, increasingly higher prices of single-family homes, which is very good news for home sellers.

 

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Existing Home Sales Numbers Show Value Gains Across America

Existing Home Sales Show Price Gains March 2013The National Association of REALTORS® released its Existing Home Sales report for March on Monday.

Sales dipped from February’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.95 million to 4.92 million existing homes sold in March, a decrease of 0.6 percent month-to-month.

This reading was lower than Wall Street’s consensus of 5.03 million existing homes sold, but there is also good news.

Sales of existing homes are up by 10.3 percent as compared to March 2012.

Economists note that existing home sales have performed within a narrow range of 4.90 to 4.96 million since November 2012.

This illustrates the impact of lower numbers of existing homes available for purchase in California and around the country.

The National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index reports builder concerns including rising materials costs, tight construction credit and lack of available developed lots for building.

Demand for Homes, Fewer Distressed Properties Driving Median Home Price Gains

The national median price for existing homes was $184,300; this is an 11.8 percent increase over March 2012.

This was the largest year-over-year price increase since November 2005.

Low inventories of available homes for sale and fewer distressed properties on the market are supporting rising home prices.

Distressed home represented 21 percent of existing home sales in March, which was their lowest market share since data collection started in 2008.

Distressed home sales decreased from a 29 percent market share in March 2012.

With fewer “bargain-basement” homes on the market, homeowners waiting to sell may be more willing to list their homes which could add to the numbers of existing homes available.

Regional Median Home Prices Rise

Existing home sales declined in two of four U.S. regional markets, were unchanged in one market and rose in one market.

Sales of existing homes are calculated on an annual basis.

Northeast: Sales volume for March was unchanged at 630,000 homes sold annually. The median price is $237,000. This represents a year-over-increase of 6.8 percent since March 2012.

Midwest: Sales increased by 1.8 percent to 1.16 million homes. The median price rose to $141,800, an increase of 7.8 percent year-over-year.

South: Sales volume dropped by1.5 percent to 1.95 million homes. The median home price is $161,700. This is a 10.4 percent increase as compared to March 2012.

West: Sales volume declined by 1.7 percent to 1.18 million homes. This represents an increase of 4.4 percent in existing home sales over March 2012. The median home price in the West has risen by 26.1 percent year-over-year to $258,100. This dramatic increase is attributed by high demand for homes caused by very low home inventories.

While regional median home prices rose across the board in March, regional sales volumes were varied; this suggests that if there were more homes available, there would be more buyers.

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Home Builders Hold Great Confidence For New Homes Over Next 6 Months

Home Builder Confidence Positive 6 Month Outlook April 2013The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) report for April shows that builder confidence slipped by two points to a rating of 42 from the March reading of 44.

The Housing Market Index (HMI) measures home builder confidence in market conditions for newly built single family homes.

A reading of more than 50 indicates better than average confidence, while readings below 50 indicate that home builders have concerns about current market conditions.

NAHB Housing Market Index Results For April

Home builders expressed concern over a gap between a growing demand for homes and builders’ ability to meet the demand for new homes as housing market conditions improve.

Top concerns cited by home builders surveyed include:

  • Availability of construction credit
  • Construction costs rising faster than home values
  • Restrictive mortgage lending rules impacting would-be home buyers

Supply chains for building materials and available developed lots are also impacting home builder confidence, as they have been lagging behind increasing demand for homes since the recession and will need more time to catch up.

Six Month Confidence Forecast Strongest Since February 2007

While builder confidence fell on a month-to-month basis, home builders have a more positive outlook for the next six months.

The builder confidence reading for the next six months came in at 53 for April, which is the highest reading since February 2007.

In terms of demand for newly built homes, the home builders surveyed said that a shortage of existing homes, low mortgage rates and increasing consumer confidence are expected to improve the market for existing homes.

Consumer confidence is important to all facets of the home building and mortgage lending industries.

Buying a home is typically the largest investment that consumers make, and their confidence in the economy plays a role in their decisions about when or if they buy a home.

Regional readings for housing markets are based on a three month rolling average.

Results for April were unchanged or lower in all four regions as compared to the rolling average reported in March:

  • Northeast: The reading of 38 is unchanged from March.
  • Midwest: The reading declined by two points to 45.
  • South: April’s reading declined by four points to 42
  • West: April’s reading declined by three points to 55, but remains in positive territory.

Regional readings reflect conditions impacting only a specific area of the U.S.

Recent examples include the impact of Hurricane Sandy in the Northeast, and an ongoing lack of land available for home construction in the West.

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Three Financial Reasons to Buy a Home NOW! (Part Two)

Part 2 of a 3 part series posted by the KCM Crew a couple of weeks ago.

Three Financial Reasons to Buy a Home NOW! (Part Two)

by THE KCM CREW on MARCH 26, 2013

This week, we are going to look at the three financial reasons to buy a home now instead of waiting: 1.)  prices are rising at an accelerated rate, 2.) interest rates are increasing and 3.) rents are skyrocketing. – The KCM Crew

Part II – Interest Rates Are Increasing

interest ratesA big component in the cost of a home is the mortgage interest rate a purchaser pays. Understanding where rates are headed will help in making a decision whether to buy now or wait.

So, Where Are Rates Headed?

No one can know for sure. The Fed has been artificially holding rates down to stimulate the economy. However, as the economy improves, many experts expect rates to creep up. As an example, HSH Associates, the nation’s largest publisher of mortgage and consumer loan information, recently explained:

“The stronger the economy becomes, the higher rates may grind; the Federal Reserve is keeping them low to goose the economy, but an economy responding to the Fed’s medicine will soon see less of a need for it in order to function. If not otherwise manipulated, higher rates are the natural result of a growing economy, as rising demand for available credit supply and concerns about inflation allow costs to rise.”

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) agrees. They were quoted in HousingWire late last year regarding their thoughts on where rates would be headed in 2013.

“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted.”

In the MBA’s latest Mortgage Finance Forecast they forecast that the 30 year interest rate will be 4.3% by the end of the year. This represents an increase of almost a full percentage point from the 3.4% rate available at the end of 2012.

Mortgage Payments

For example, we show the impact a one percent increase in rate will have on the monthly principal and interest payment on a $200,000 mortgage.

Freddie Mac’s Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reveals that rates have increased by 2/10ths of a percentage point already this year.

As we mentioned, no one knows for sure where rates will be a year from now. But, many experts think they may be as much as a point higher. With rising residential real estate prices and the possibility of higher mortgage rates, waiting to buy a home makes no sense in our opinion.

Next, we will look at skyrocketing rents.

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Three Financial Reasons to Buy a Home NOW! (Part One)

This is part one of a 3 part series posted by the KCM Crew a couple of weeks ago.

Three Financial Reasons to Buy a Home NOW! (Part One)

by THE KCM CREW on MARCH 25, 2013

This week, we are going to look at the three financial reasons to buy a home now instead of waiting: prices are rising at an accelerated rate, interest rates are increasing and rents are skyrocketing. – The KCM Crew

Part I – Prices Are Rising at an Accelerated Rate

prices up

The price of a home is the major consideration when deciding whether or not it makes financial sense to purchase a house. Experts are not only projecting that house values will increase in 2013. They are also more optimistic in the level of appreciation they are projecting as the market begins to heat up. Here are some examples:

The Home Price Expectation Survey

The latest survey of a nationwide panel of 118 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists reveals they project home values to end 2013 up an average of 4.6% according to the first quarter. This is after they had projected a 3.1% increase just three months ago.

Bank of America

In a report titled, Someone Say House Party?, Bank of America analysts revised their projections upward:

“Home prices continue to show momentum amid shrinking inventory and record high affordability, prompting us to revise up our original forecast of 4.7% for home prices this year. We now expect national home prices, as defined by the S&P Case Shiller home price index, to increase 8% this year.”

Capital Economics

According to a report in DSNewsCapital Economics also upgraded their prediction:

“Strong demand and tight inventory have brought existing home sales back to ‘normal’ levels, and further gains are possible, according to the latest market report from Capital Economics. Additionally, market conditions may prompt lenders to “loosen the purse strings slightly” and lend a little more freely.

These conditions, combined with broader economic indicators, lead Capital Economics to revise its previous forecast of a 5% price gain this year up to 8%.”

Morgan Stanley

In an article from HousingWireMorgan Stanley joined the party:

“Strong momentum in home prices as well as housing activity gave Morgan Stanley analysts enough confidence to upgrade their home price appreciation projections to roughly 7% (from 5%) for 2013, according to its latest global securitized credit report…

“The momentum in most metrics of housing activity is running well ahead of the pace we had expected,” said James Egan, Jose Cambronero and Vishwanath Tirupattur, analysts for Morgan Stanley.”

Not only are prices projected to appreciate. Experts are actually revising their projections upward as demand maintains its momentum.

Next, we will look at increasing interest rates.

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Three Reasons to Sell Your House Today! (Part 3)

Three Reasons to Sell Your House Today! (Part 3)

by THE KCM CREW on APRIL 10, 2013

This week, we are going to look at the three reasons to sell your house now instead of waiting: 1.) demand is strong, 2.) supply is low and 3.) new construction will soon be your competition. – The KCM Crew

Part 3 – New Construction Will Soon Be Your Competition

home builder

“Over the last several years, most homeowners selling their home did not have to compete with a new construction project around the block. As the market is recovering, more and more builders are jumping back in. As an example, the National Association of Realtors revealed, relative to last year, year-to-date new home sales are up 19%.

These ‘shiny’ new homes will again become competition as they can be an attractive alternative to many of today’s home purchasers.

Here are the numbers regarding new construction about to come to market from the Census Bureau:

BUILDING PERMITS

  • Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 600,000.
  • This is 25.5% above February 2012.

HOUSING UNDER CONSTRUCTION

  • Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 618,000.
  • This is 18.5% above February 2012.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS

  • Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 574,000.
  • This is 32.9% above February 2012.

As we mentioned, new construction can be strong competition to a seller of an existing home. It may make sense to list your home before this new inventory makes its way to market.” ( End of the KCM Crew 3 part series.)

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All of a sudden, the time to sell is now

An article by Megan Hopkins of HousingWire.com on April 2, 2013

“It seems the transition is complete. In a recent survey by Redfin, 82% of agents described now as a “good time to sell,” while only 57% described now as “a good time to buy.”

Let’s back up to the third quarter of 2012, when 54% of the agents polled considered it a good time to sell, but 75% called it a good time to buy.

This complete ‘180’ in the housing markets can only be backed by dangerously low inventory, prices that continue to appreciate and low interest rates pushing buyers to buy now.

I recently wrote about a house my husband and I put an offer in on. I felt fairly confident about our offer and we’d managed to tour the house less than 24 hours after it had gone on the market, putting our offer in the same day. 

Unfortunately, within a day, four other offers were put in and the seller chose a higher one.

SOLD-over-asking

As a buyer, this is discouraging. It’s frustrating to know there is zero ‘wiggle room’ when it comes to negotiations and often homes are selling above the appraisal value.

On the other hand, I can only imagine sellers are riding high and feeling good, as multiple offers pour in on their homes within a day. In fact, 98% of agents surveyed by Redfin agreed that sellers are becoming more confident about the market.

With that in mind, 83% of agents agree that buyers also are becoming more confident, so it’s not totally a lost cause for those of us trying to find a home.

Working in this industry, I can’t tell you how many people I’ve heard say “the time to buy is now.” Well, as a buyer (often frustrated with this sellers’ market), I can tell you that the time to sell is now as well.” ( End of Megan’s article.)

In South Orange County, California – my neck of the woods – multiple offers are commonplace for any “nice” new listing. ( “Nice” means those listings that don’t have any serious negative issues, such as being backed to a busy street, really old and outdated, or simply in decrepit condition.)

Listing agents are now “playing games” like waiting a week or so before allowing the property to be shown, or a similar period to “evaluate” offers, building up a backlog of buyers, intent on out-bidding one another.

So, what is a prospective buyer to do, in such a market?

They would be well advised to engage an experienced local agent who has a good network of fellow agents, who – if lucky – might get first dibs on those precious new listings.

What should prospective sellers do?

First, this is a GREAT time for sellers to negotiate that listing commission.

Listings are gold right now and there’s very little reason to offer the listing agent of the property a 2.5 or 3% share of the listing.  Many good agents will accept as low as 1%.  ( They know that with a “nice” listing, they won’t have to do many of the usual chores they do, to get listings sold – in THIS market, many houses are selling just by coming onto the market.)

That leaves the selling agent’s share, which should be no MORE than 2.5%, resulting in a total listing commission in the 3.5 to 4% maximum neighborhood.

Second, go a little higher than recent listings. ( Listings, not closed sales.)  It’s always better to come down in a week or two, than to sell too quickly and wonder if you could have gotten more.

How long will this seller’s market last?  There’s no way to tell, other than to keep your finger on its pulse, the way a good agent will do.

I have been successfully helping my buyers and sellers navigate these market ups and downs for over 36 years, and would be pleased to be considered as your agent.

Whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, or both, shoot me an email or give me a call, and let’s talk real estate.

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