Orange County Housing Market Summary:
- The active listing inventory increased by 137 homes in the past two weeks, up 2%, and now totals 7,207. Expect the inventory to peak in the next couple of weeks. Last year, there were 5,493 homes on the market, 1,714 fewer than today.
- So far this year, 16% fewer homes have come on the market below $500,000 compared to last year, and there have been 25% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly vanishing.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased in the past two-weeks by 5 pending sales, and now totals 2,167. Demand peaked in mid-May at 2,726 pending sales. Last year, there were 2,520 pending sales, 16% more than today.
- The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.5 million over the past two-weeks. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is still a slight Seller’s Market (less than 90 days) with an expected market time of 74 days. This range represents 42% of the active inventory and 56% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 92 days, a Balanced Market (between 90 to 120 days). This range represents 20% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 111 days, a Balanced Market.
- For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 124 to 134 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 174 to 164 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 257 to 291 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 449 to 328 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 30% of the inventory and only 15% of demand.
- The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased from 98 to 100 days, a Balanced Market (between 90 to 120 days).
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.9% of all listings and 1.5% of demand. There are only 25 foreclosures and 43 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 68 total distressed homes on the active market, up by 12 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 88 total distressed homes on the market, 29% more than today.
- There were 2,784 closed residential resales in August, 11% fewer than August 2017’s 3,116. August marked a 1% increase over July 2018. The sales to list price ratio was 97.8% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.6%. That means that 99% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
From Steven Thomas, a long-time, renowned, Orange County real estate statistician.